Many people believe incorrectly that a medical test always distinguishes between the abnormal and the normal, or the sick and the well, or the diseased and the non-diseased. Every test does this only in some cases, and you can rely on the fact that every test, including CT, gives incorrect results a certain portion of the time.
To understand the risks and benefits of whole-body CT screening, it is perhaps easiest to divide the results of the exam into two possible outcomes, normal and abnormal.
If your CT examination result is interpreted as normal, either
- you may really have nothing significant wrong with you, or
- you may have a hidden disease that fails to show up on a CT image or is missed or misinterpreted by the radiologist.
If your CT examination result is interpreted as abnormal, either
- the abnormal interpretation may be incorrect or you may have nothing significant wrong with you, or
- you may really have a life-threatening disease for which there may or may not be a cure and, if a cure exists, there may or may not be time to do something that can cure it.
Consider these possibilities one at a time. If you receive a normal report and there really is nothing significant wrong with you, then you might go away with peace of mind, but you will have exposed yourself to radiation and its associated risks. The radiation exposure of a CT exam can be several hundred times that of a chest x ray. Not only might this amount of radiation exposure give you a slightly increased chance of getting cancer, but also, if large numbers of healthy people now start to receive radiation exposure from whole-body CT screening for questionable benefit, the overall effect on public health could be detrimental. This would be detrimental all the more so if people were to receive this examination repeatedly, on a regular basis.
If you receive a normal report but a life-threatening disease is really present, then you will have received false reassurance that could interfere with your recognizing symptoms or getting appropriate screening tests later. In addition, you will have exposed yourself to radiation from which you derived no benefit.
If your CT screening result is interpreted as abnormal and there really is nothing significant wrong with you, then you may be subjected to still further tests or treatments, all of which have their own risks. For example, further tests may bring about additional radiation exposure and the small chance of toxicity from contrast material needed for visualization, or the bleeding, infection, and potential disfigurement associated with biopsy or exploratory surgery. And treatments may include surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, or medicines, each with its own small risks of injury, toxicity, or even death. The surprising fact about a CT interpretation of abnormality when there is nothing significant wrong is that it is far more likely to happen to you than the finding of any actual life-threatening disease, since the likelihood that you actually have any deadly disease is so small to begin with.
Finally, if your CT is interpreted as abnormal and the abnormality represents an actual hidden, life-threatening disease, then you may have benefited. The benefit will be real only if:
- the disease has an effective treatment, and
- it is found early enough to benefit from this treatment.
Many life-threatening diseases do not have effective treatments, or, if they do, the period in which the treatment might have worked may have passed already.
In summary, when possible risks are compared to the possible benefits, the harms currently appear to be both far more likely and in some cases may not be insignificant. These harms are: (1) radiation exposure which has a small risk of cancer induction for an individual CT procedure, and (2) the possibility of either a false finding of an abnormality or a true finding of an insignificant abnormality, either of which could lead to further harm.
So, if you are apparently healthy, the good news is that the probability is already high that there is nothing seriously wrong with you, without your ever getting a whole-body CT screening exam.